Unpacking the logic behind “slow the testing down, please”

A lot has been made of the President's claim that slowing down testing would somehow help, a stance he has continued to emphasize in later press appearances. Most analysts argue that this reflects a misunderstanding on his part, assuming that ignoring the issue will make it disappear. However, following several prominent figures who express skepticism about the severity of the virus on social media platforms, I believe I grasp the reasoning behind the President's words. While the evidence suggests he is incorrect, it’s not just a simplistic mindset where one believes that avoiding a problem makes it vanish. Instead, there’s an intellectual framework supporting this belief, complete with statistics, graphs, and even contributions from highly intelligent individuals who, unfortunately, are mistaken. I aim to explore this not to fuel political debates or take sides but because understanding this perspective is crucial for those tracking the pandemic and preparing for future developments. There exists a well-reasoned but flawed community of virus skeptics whose narratives significantly influence national and state-level responses to the virus. The virus skeptic narrative roughly goes as follows: - The outbreak peaked in March, with actual cases far exceeding reported numbers, possibly in the millions. - Most cases were mild, similar to the flu, and went unnoticed unless the patient was elderly or had underlying health conditions. - The number of unreported cases has been declining as the outbreak wanes, evidenced by the ongoing decrease in deaths (despite rising case numbers). - Thus, the spike in detected cases is merely due to increased testing and contact tracing efforts, revealing cases that were previously hidden. In essence, without the extensive testing and tracing operations, these spikes wouldn’t be visible, leading to unnecessary alarm and economic damage. From this perspective, the rise in cases appears exaggerated and contributes to unnecessary fear and economic hardship. At this point, the argument shifts to prioritizing the economy over the perceived mildness of the virus. To counteract the 'illusion' of rising cases, some suggest reducing testing rates to align public perception with the reality that the pandemic is largely over. When considering the President's comments, they start to make more sense within this context. In an interview with CBN, he explained: “No, but I think we put ourselves at a disadvantage. I told my people, ‘We’ve gotten so good at testing… We test much more than any other nation,’ so you hear about all these cases.” “So, instead of 25 million tests, let’s say we did 10 million tests. We’d look like we were doing much better because we’d have far fewer cases. You understand that,” Trump added. He also mentioned that his earlier comment in Tulsa was "semi-tongue in cheek," asserting that more testing reveals more cases. This isn't just ignorance; it's a complex form of denial supported by certain medical professionals and even foreign governments like Sweden, which adopted a similar approach. For a concise summary of this skeptical stance, check out this Medium post. I've also shared my Virus Skeptic list publicly, offering further insight into this movement. Unherd.com hosts numerous interviews with high-profile skeptics, circulating widely within this group. Their page contains many popular videos discussing COVID-19 skepticism. While I won’t delve deeply into refuting these claims, I find the declining fatality rate intriguing. It seems to result from reporting delays and a younger demographic of new cases. However, I anticipate a resurgence in fatalities before July ends—either nationwide or in hotspot regions. In the coming weeks, this narrative might shift as fatalities increase again. My focus remains on preparing others for the future rather than debunking misinformation. Still, it's essential to recognize that the President's remarks stem from a community with a coherent but flawed understanding of the pandemic. Many of these skeptics hold significant sway, genuinely believing that excessive testing, not the virus itself, poses the greatest threat to America. They meticulously analyze data to support their beliefs, which they firmly hold to be true. Regrettably, their conclusions are entirely wrong, yet they continue to guide policy decisions at both national and state levels. Prepare accordingly.

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